...and what do all these Op-Eds accomplish in the short or long run??
Jonathan Pollard: Are there diplomatic solutions to Egypt’s illegal actions in Sinai?
With regard to Egypt’s decision to obtain an extremely dangerous long-range Chinese air-to-air missile, there may be two diplomatic initiatives we could undertake. Op-ed.
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In response to my last opinion piece published by Arutz Sheva entitled “Egypt’s New Threat to Israel’s Air Dominance”, [article follows below] I received several inquiries asking why I hadn’t proposed any diplomatic responses we could undertake to counter this threat. Although I don’t really have a valid excuse for this oversight, I must admit that my usual response to potential threats, particularly from nearby enemies, is to figure out a way to eliminate them as quickly and decisively as possible, rather than rely upon the uncertain guarantees of diplomatic agreements.
However, with regard to Egypt’s decision to obtain an extremely dangerous long-range Chinese air-to-air missile, there may be two diplomatic initiatives we could undertake that might reinforce the military responses to this threat I’ve suggested. Both involve the United States Congress.
As we all know, the United States provides an enormous amount of military aid to Egypt as a “reward” for having signed the Camp David Accord with Israel. Unfortunately, Egypt has never honored this agreement- particularly, with regard to its requirement to keep the Sinai peninsula demilitarized. Egyptian violations of the latter include excessive troop levels, massive infrastructure and logistical construction, army-scale command control facilities, and, most troubling of all, air bases that can only be justified if Egypt is considering offensive actions against Israel.
Taken as a whole, then, these aforementioned Egyptian violations of Camp David confirm the fact that Egypt’s publicly stated threats to annihilate Israel are not just empty rhetoric, but are confirmation of Egypt’s intent to wipe us off the face of the earth. And if people still refuse to recognize what Egypt is up to, then they should keep the following fact in mind.
The Egyptian army’s major exercises all share one thing in common: namely, the objective of invading southern Israel from forward bases located in the Sinai Peninsula. So, there you have it. War with Egypt can and should be considered a certain eventuality.
Assuming we had a government worthy of the name, we could go to the US Congress and ask that they terminate all US military assistance provided to Egypt. Moreover, our request should be made publicly along with all the supporting evidence of Egypt’s numerous violations of Camp David. Indeed, given the fact that there is a special House of Representatives committee investigating Egypt’s noncompliance with Camp David, our request just might gain traction.
However, we shouldn’t be under any illusions that President Trump will support our initiative. Despite Sisi’s undiplomatic rejection of Trump’s desire to transfer Gaza’s radicalized population to other countries, Trump still likes the Egyptian dictator for many of the same reasons he likes “strong leaders” like Putin, Erdogan, and Xi Jinping. It’s highly likely, then, that Trump will veto any attempt on our part to punish Egypt for their violations of Camp David.
The fact that Trump apparently threatened to cut off US spare parts and maintenance support for the Egyptian military after Sisi rejected his transfer idea shouldn’t be taken too seriously. After all, the threat was part of Trump’s effort to get Sisi’s endorsement of his transfer idea and was not meant to punish Egypt for its various breaches of Camp David.
Proof of this can be seen in the fact that Trump hasn’t followed up his threats by actually implementing them. In other words, the threats were simply bluster. It’s possible, though, that Trump might support a slight reduction of military assistance to Egypt as part of his desire to limit “giveaways” to ungrateful allies. But, given Trump’s mercurial nature, we shouldn’t count on this.
Another request we could ask Congress to consider is sanctioning Egypt for its purchase of J-10 Chinese fighters and PL-15 air-to-air missiles under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, otherwise known as CAATSA.
The act was signed into law in late 2017 and was subsequently employed against Turkey in 2020 in the wake of Erdogan’s decision to purchase Russia’s S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile defense system, rather than the US-manufactured Patriot. As a result of this legislative action, Turkish defense industries were hit with sanctions and Turkey was removed from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter partnership.
Theoretically, Egypt could be sanctioned under CAATSA for having purchased the J-10 fighter and PL-15 long-range missile. Although the law has been waived in the case of India’s continued acquisition of Russian military hardware, Egypt should fall into a different category since it is the recipient of billions of dollars of free American military assistance.
Indeed, I’ve already seen reports indicating that several prominent US Congressmen are incensed by the fact that if Egypt, which is an economic basket case, has the money to buy Chinese fighters, why should America continue subsidizing the Egyptian armed forces? It’s an excellent question, which could be answered by hitting Egypt with CAATSA sanctions. But whether Trump would actually go along with this is open to question. We’ll never know, though, unless we force the issue.
Personally, I have little faith that any diplomatic action by the US would successfully compel Egypt to withdraw its forces from Sinai, let alone destroy all the air bases it’s built there in clear violation of the Camp David Agreement. However, would it be potentially worthwhile for us to go down this road?
Of course, provided we also build up the forces necessary to take back Sinai in a short, decisive campaign. Hopefully, once we’ve reoccupied Sinai, we won’t be stupid enough to hand it back to Egypt ever again!
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/404780
Jonathan Pollard: Egypt’s new threat to Israel’s air dominance
Egypt's acquisition of a Chinese-manufactured J-10 “Dragon” fighter equipped with PL-15 beyond visual range (BVR) air-to-air missiles constitutes an extremely troubling development. Op-ed.
As reported in the media, Egypt has recently signed an agreement to purchase the Chinese-manufactured J-10 “Dragon” fighter. Although Egypt’s acquisition of this 4th generation fighter will not, in and of itself, pose a serious threat to Israel’s aerial superiority, Beijing’s decision to equip the Egyptian J-10s with its PL-15 beyond visual range (BVR) air-to-air missile does constitute an extremely troubling development.
Making things worse, there are unconfirmed reports that China has agreed to let Egypt manufacture the PL-15, which would allow the Egyptian Air Force to equip many of its other fighters with the long-range missile.
At the present time, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) employs the Derby BVR air-to-air missile with a range of approximately 50km and the US-supplied Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) that has an estimated range of around 64km. The PL-15, in contrast, has an engagement range of between 200-300km.
What this means is that our fighters will be at a serious disadvantage when going up against Egyptian warplanes armed with the PL-15. The following represents two scenarios that demonstrate what this type of engagement disparity could mean if a war were to erupt between Egypt and Israel.
Given the fact that Egypt has illegally built forward airbases in Sinai, PL-15-equipped Egyptian fighters operating from these facilities could theoretically engage Israeli fighters taking off from the Ramon Airbase the minute they’re airborne.
The PL-15 would also grant Egyptian fighters the ability to push our Airborne Warning and Control aircraft far away from our frontier with Egypt, thereby denying our fighters a clear understanding of exactly where enemy fighters are located.
Lastly, assuming PL-15-equipped Egyptian fighters provided cover for a strike coming in from the sea targeting our strategic infrastructure sites, the Egyptians just might be able to successfully drop gravity bombs or launch cruise missiles against our coastal power stations. Obviously, knocking even one of them out could inflict incalculable harm on our state.
So, what could we do to neutralize the PL-15?
One simple solution would involve asking the US if we could purchase their new AIM-174B air-to-air missile. This missile, which is an air-launched version of the US Navy’s SM-6 ship-launched anti-aircraft missile, has an extraordinary range of 400km. This would clearly put even a PL-15-equipped Egyptian fighter at a distinct disadvantage in an aerial engagement.
We could also ask the Americans if we could co-produce under license the AIM-174B, thereby allowing us both to provide the US with an increased production rate of AIM-174Bs, while at the same time providing us with the ability to quickly equip all our F-16s and F-15s with the missile.
We might even be able to construct a missile-equipped drone that would accompany our fighters into combat, providing them with the ability to launch saturation attacks against opposing Egyptian fighters.
Above all else, what we have to appreciate is that the Egyptians are definitely planning to go to war with us. The J-10/PL-15 combination is one more example of just how serious they are about this intention.
However, assuming we could obtain America’s AIM-174B air-to-air missile, we would be in a position to effectively stymie Egypt’s effort to neutralize our aerial advantage. This could allow us to launch a preventive strike against the Egyptian Air Force, thereby recreating the situation that guaranteed our victory in 1967.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/404636
Comments
Egypt planning for a war against Israel. That is the heart of Pollard’s message.
We let ourselves believe Hamas would not attack with 6,000 soldiers cutting through the fence. Let it make that mistake with Egypt.
If the US doesn't want to give Israel the new AIM-174B air-to-air missile, Israel could retake the Sinai. If Egypt has illegally built forward airbases in Sinai, that is a grave violation of the Peace Treaty with Israel. Israel would have every right to take lands in the Sinai as a defensive counter-measure to ensure Egypt does not try to encroach Israel's sovereignty.
The problem is that Israel has every right to abolish the Oslo accords, to retake Gush Katif, Southern lebanon, etc... but we never do it. So, we will never attack Egypt even if they violate the Peace treaty. We will only react to an Egyptian attack or attack when it will be clear that they will attack us.
2 comments:
we wolld need a far bigger army than we have
doo wop, we have a much larger army, IN SHAMAYIM!
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