SEE ALSO “ https://mishpacha.com/border-alert/” About the Buildup of Egypt’s Military, with facts & numbers.
The Awakening of the Lion: The Egyptian military threat on our border
Israel needs to fully prepare for an Egyptian military threat on our border. Op-ed.
If you are involved in security or even seriously interested in current affairs and the Middle East, nothing in what you are about to read will surprise or be new to you. It is very possible that the individual pieces of this puzzle do not necessarily form the alarming picture I seek to warn against, but it is better to be cautious and alert than to regret later. I see some possible benefit — perhaps — even in simply laying out these facts and details together.
As both distant and recent history have taught us, we must never assume that we "understand better than the players around us" what they think or feel. We must remain faithful to the classic intelligence principle: "Observe the enemy’s means and capabilities, and their actions, rather than trying to guess their intentions."
1. Israel is currently emerging from one of the longest and most expensive military efforts in its history.
2. Following US President Donald Trump’s speech and his expected explicitly pro-Israel policies, Israel is likely to strengthen and rebuild itself in the foreseeable future. Additionally, following the surprise attack on October 7, Israel is increasing its military forces and defense budget, preparing for future security threats — primarily the Iranian nuclear threat (especially through the Air Force), as well as the Turkish and Egyptian threats. In this regard, this may be a unique strategic window for adversaries to attack while Israel appears weakened.
3. Egypt is a vast Sunni Muslim country that, although officially at peace with Israel, maintains a cold peace. Antisemitism, incitement, and hate speech on Egyptian television and in the streets are among the highest in the world. The peace treaty has been repeatedly violated for years, most notably through the increasing presence of Egyptian forces deep in the Sinai Peninsula and large-scale military infrastructure buildup. The military preparations are too extensive to be purely defensive and strongly suggest preparations for a military confrontation with Israel.
Despite the peace treaty, Israel remains Egypt’s traditional adversary. Recently, Egypt provocatively deployed dozens of tanks directly on Israel’s southern border. The extent of Egyptian involvement in arming Hamas over the years, and in preparations for the Iron Swords War, is unknown, but at the very least, Egypt knowingly allowed large-scale weapons smuggling (if not actively participated in it). Throughout the war in Gaza, sporadic evidence emerged suggesting Egyptian-standard military equipment was smuggled into the Strip.
A clear sign of Egypt’s hostile intent is its absolute refusal to assist with Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, driven by its ideological commitment to the ongoing struggle against Israel. This aligns with Egypt’s pan-Islamic narrative, which calls for continuing the fight until the so-called lost honor of the Egyptian nation is restored and the Zionist stain is erased from the land deemed sacred to Islam — that is, the destruction of Israel.
4. Egypt has a massive conventional army (in the air, land, and sea), which has undergone significant upgrades over the past 40 years. This includes:
- New operational infrastructure in Sinai and mainland Egypt
- Dozens of bridges, tunnels, and crossings over and under the Suez Canal (built since 2007)
Massive reserves of fuel, ammunition, heavy engineering equipment, armored vehicles, and spare parts
- New airfields, naval bases, fortified headquarters, and extensive bunker networks, built with enormous budgets
5. The Palestinian issue, particularly the Trump administration’s Gaza plan, could serve as a pretext for an Egyptian invasion. Egypt could justify aggression against Israel as an act of justice for the Palestinians, rallying support from:
- The anti-Israel axis (Russia, China — who could block UN Security Council actions against Egypt)
- Arab states (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan)
- Certain European countries that oppose Trump’s plan
6. With Turkey’s rise, Syria’s collapse, and what appears to be a weakened Iranian axis, Egypt may feel emboldened to take military action.
7. Although one might assume that the US would intervene in Israel’s favor, the extent, timing, and nature of such intervention need deeper analysis. If Egypt launches a swift surprise attack, what practical assistance could the US provide?
- Geopolitical distractions such as provocations or even full-scale military actions by China, North Korea, Russia, or Turkey could divert US attention to other global theaters.
Egypt and/or Turkey might deploy their navies to impose a maritime blockade on Israel, making it difficult for the US to provide large-scale logistical and ammunition support. This could result in delays or insufficient aid for various reasons.
8. For all these reasons, Israel’s leadership, military, intelligence, and security agencies must immediately prepare for the possibility of another war—despite the immense challenge. This requires a multi-front strategy:
Diplomatic, informational, and financial preparation
- Military and technological development
- Pooling and mobilizing all necessary resources
- Creative, rapid solutions
- Accelerated force-building (even if asymmetric) to address the growing conventional threat
Urgent Questions for Decision-Makers:
What is the size of Egypt’s immediately available military force for war against Israel?
- How quickly could Egypt mobilize its full army, and what is its total mobilization potential?
How can the IDF preemptively prepare an effective defense within a realistic timeframe?
What would an Egyptian surprise attack look like, based on its recent military exercises?
- Armored divisions’ maneuvers
Massive commando landings behind Israeli lines
- Aerial and missile attacks on strategic Israeli targets
- Preemptive Egyptian strikes to neutralize Israel’s strategic weapons
- The potential presence of non-conventional weapons in Egypt’s arsenal
- Identifying early warning signs of last-stage Egyptian war preparations
- How can Israel neutralize Egyptian armored forces using current means (including creative, asymmetric thinking)?
- How can Israel counter the Egyptian navy
- A comprehensive target list to dismantle Egypt’s war strategy
- A combined diplomatic and military deterrence strategy — or a large-scale preemptive strike if war appears imminent
This is a direct call for immediate action at the highest levels to ensure Israel is not caught off guard by a possible Egyptian surprise attack, despite its formal peace agreement with Cairo
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