Syria – “We Shall See"

Shock is the appropriate word to describe president Trumps sudden announcement that he was ordering all US forces out of Syria.

There are few public figures who eagerly support the move and it has me scratching my head as well. His defense secretary resigned over it and other close foreign policy advisors are quiet and we are told, not very happy.

We don't know what will develop there when the forces leave but I have been thinking...

The US has succeeded in crushing ISIS, which was their stated mission.

There is no power in the area that can threaten US interests.

There are significant local powers who will not tolerate an ISIS come back. I refer to Shia Iran and to Syria backed by Russia. Also, Turkey, though Suni, like iSIS, was not an ally of the Caliphate and will not tolerate an ideologically fanatic, independent, out of control movement on its doorstep.

Since the "Arab spring" and the ongoing breakup of the traditional Arab states throughout the region, there is no regional power capable of picking up all the cards in what was Syria and Iraq. They are far too busy with day to day survival for immediate expansionist dreams.

Iran has (d) dreams of a Shiite crescent from Iran, through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. The Shia regional power is now in internal confusion as US sanctions bite hard even as they struggle to evade it. The price of oil (their only real export) is very low and falling. They have taken serious military losses over their years of intervention in Syria and Iraq causing unrest at home.

Turkey would like to regain their Ottoman era prestige and power. Iran also dreams of former glory. Turkey sees itself as the rightful regional superpower and leader of the Sunni world. Iran does too. They will not let each other realize their dreams without a fight. Trump's alleged phone call to Turkey's leader, telling him," it's all yours" would mean that he sees no danger to US interests in having Turkey keep things quiet there and keep his enemies, Iran and ISIS out. If they fail. the US military has a very long arm.

With all the above, let us not forget that Russia overshadows all in Syria.

The US is apparently satisfied the way things are going in the region and can ( for now) disengage. She can always influence events militarily - from forces in the area, as has been demonstrated on numerous occasions. The US has the longest and most effective military arm in the world. It is always on call.

As long as Russia does not allow Iran to position itself on Israel's border, Israel should not care much about who is fighting whom in the chaotic areas that were once Syria and Iraq. Israel should pray for the success of all of the protagonists.

Russia's decision to allow aIran a foothold on Israel's border has more to do with US diplomatic/military demands of Russia than upon what Israel may do.

The ones who will most certainly be adversely affected by the US pullout are the Kurds. They will be strangled by Turkey and Iran no doubt.

The Kurds are helplessly internally divided and ridden by intrigue. They have been selling their oil to Assad even as the US sanctions the murderous regime. Not a comradely act. Trump has apparently decided that the US is not obligated to protect Kurds with American blood and treasure.

As Trump often says; "we shall see".

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