Reb Sones: Mark My Words .......

 Mark My Words: The Middle East’s Future Was Written in the Past

Israel’s victory, or imminent betrayal?

The Middle East is a land of practical alliances and hidden agendas, where today’s headlines echo yesterday’s strategies. For Jews and friends of Israel, understanding this volatile region is not just an intellectual exercise—it is a matter of survival.

What if we could predict the future by decoding the past? This is the power of a predictive framework: a disciplined approach that uses historical patterns, geopolitical strategies, and hard data to forecast what lies ahead. By examining Saudi Arabia’s trajectory since the 1980s, we can uncover a blueprint that not only explains today’s events but also warns of risks to Israel’s future.

Are Israel’s recent strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities a triumph, or a step into a U.S.-Saudi trap that could cost Jerusalem itself? Let’s explore this question, starting with a look back to 1980, and then crafting a roadmap for what to watch in the years ahead.

Decoding the Middle East’s Puzzle

A predictive framework is no mere guesswork. It is a method that identifies key trends—such as a nation’s reliance on resources or its alliance-building—and tests them against specific, observable outcomes.

In a region where chaos often masks careful strategy, this approach cuts through the noise. For Israel’s supporters, it’s a vital tool to navigate a landscape where Saudi Arabia’s ambitions, Iran’s threats, and America’s influence could reshape the Jewish state’s destiny.

Our journey begins by stepping back to 1980, when Saudi Arabia stood at a crossroads, and we will ask: Could we have predicted its rise as a regional power? If so, can we apply the same logic to today’s events, where Israel’s actions may serve a broader U.S.-Saudi agenda?

Saudi Arabia’s Hidden Ambitions

Our premise is bold yet grounded: For decades, Saudi Arabia has pursued a grand strategy to dominate the Middle East, using its oil wealth and U.S. partnerships to outmaneuver rivals like Iran. Since the 1980s, this strategy may have included covert cooperation with Israel against shared enemies.

But what if Saudi Arabia’s ambitions now extend beyond countering Iran? What if the kingdom is positioning itself to reshape the region, at Israel’s expense—perhaps even eyeing control over Jerusalem’s holy sites?

Recent analyses suggest that Israel’s strikes on Iran, celebrated as a military success, align with a U.S.-Saudi plan where Saudi Arabia emerges as the true victor.

To test this, we’ll first build a framework from 1980, evaluate its accuracy, and then craft a new one to guide us forward.

A Glimpse Back to 1980

Let us travel to 1980. The Iranian Revolution has unleashed a radical regime, the Soviet Union has invaded Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia faces internal unrest after followers of Juhayman al-Otaybi seize the Grand Mosque in Mecca. As an oil-rich monarchy and guardian of Islam’s holiest sites, the kingdom is both powerful and vulnerable.

From this vantage point, we can imagine a framework for Saudi Arabia’s future. First, it would likely rely on oil revenues to fund its government and extend influence abroad, given its vast petroleum wealth.

Second, it would deepen ties with the United States to counter Iran and Soviet threats, leveraging American military might.

Third, as custodian of Mecca and Medina, it would seek leadership among Arab and Muslim states, competing with Iran’s revolutionary zeal.

Fourth, despite public hostility, it might quietly align with Israel against mutual foes like Iran or Iraq.

Finally, recognizing the risks of oil dependency, it would attempt economic diversification, though success might be elusive.

This framework, rooted in 1980’s realities, sets the stage to test whether Saudi Arabia’s path was predictable.

Did the Past Predict the Present?

Now, let us examine whether this framework held true.

From 1980 to 2025, Saudi Arabia’s trajectory aligns closely with our predictions. Oil remained the kingdom’s lifeblood, funding its economy and regional ambitions, from supporting Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War to investing billions in projects like Neom. For a deeper look at how Saudi Arabia leveraged its oil wealth, consider exploring analyses of its economic strategies.

The U.S. partnership flourished, with the 1991 Gulf War showcasing American troops stationed in Saudi Arabia and billions in arms deals cementing ties, despite strains after 9/11.

Saudi Arabia asserted regional leadership by founding the Gulf Cooperation Council in 1981, leading interventions against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, and competing in Syria.

Covert ties with Israel emerged early—Israeli jets reportedly crossed Saudi airspace in 1981 to bomb Iraq’s reactor—and grew stronger with shared fears of Iran, culminating in recent normalization talks.

Diversification efforts, while slow, took shape with Vision 2030, though oil still dominates.

This framework’s accuracy is striking, proving that historical patterns can illuminate the future.

The Stakes in 2025

With this validation, let us turn to 2025 and the pressing question: Are Israel’s strikes on Iran part of a U.S.-Saudi strategy that benefits Saudi Arabia at Israel’s expense?

To answer, we will craft a new predictive framework, focusing on specific events to watch over the next few years.

First, consider the alignment between the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israel. By 2027, we might see new agreements—security pacts or economic deals—that elevate Saudi Arabia’s role in the region, at the cost of Israel’s autonomy. Look for treaties or joint statements from Washington, Riyadh, or Jerusalem that prioritize Saudi interests.

Second, the narrative around Iran’s threat may shift. By mid-2026, reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency or U.S. intelligence could reveal that Iran’s nuclear program was not an imminent danger, suggesting the strikes served a broader agenda.

Third, Saudi Arabia’s regional influence is likely to grow. By 2027, expect increased investments abroad or diplomatic wins, such as Saudi-led peace talks, signaling its dominance. For insights into Saudi Arabia’s regional strategy, recent discussions on its economic vision are worth exploring.

The most provocative claim is Saudi Arabia’s ambition to control Jerusalem’s Temple Mount. By 2028, watch for Saudi Arabia to push for a formal role in managing the site, replacing the Jordanian-led Waqf. Statements from Saudi leaders or agreements involving Jerusalem’s holy sites will be key indicators. This prediction aligns with analyses suggesting Saudi Arabia seeks greater religious influence.

Finally, the notion that recent conflicts, like the Simchat Torah attacks, were orchestrated to justify strikes demands scrutiny: By late 2026, evidence such as whistleblower accounts or leaked documents could suggest Israeli leaders had foreknowledge, raising questions about their loyalties.

If these events unfold—new pacts favoring Saudi Arabia, a reassessed Iranian threat, or a push for Jerusalem—the framework suggests Israel may be a pawn in a larger U.S.-Saudi game.

Mordechai Sones at Jewish Home News.