Bob Zimmerman, author, "Universe in a Mirror," [and Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel] spoke Sunday 19 July [ John Batchelor Show] on the 40th anniversary eve of the moon landing, and the likelihood of another American landing on the moon in the next two decades is slight to none.
The prospect of an American led manned Mars mission is delusional. Even putting together US with Russia, Japan, India and China with the ESA lending weight does not identify a Mars base before 2050. The robot probes will continue because they are cheaper, surer and can be multi tasked with programs that attract quick results.
A moon base near the South Pole is credible, yet a China moon base, perhaps a China base with the irony of a Japan co-development (irony plus) is imaginable. NASA is not now a credible player for 2020 and beyond.
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