The Mathematical Illusion of Safety: Normalized Risk and the Paradox of Fear
We find ourselves in a state of normalized acceptance regarding the daily dangers......[...]
Reports issued this week by Magen David Adom and hospital authorities contain a set of statistics that demand a rigorous re-evaluation of our national psyche. While the eyes of the world are fixed on the technological duel between interception systems and Iranian ballistic missiles, the data suggests that our most immediate physical threat is found in our own mirrors.
Over 120 individuals were treated for injuries in the initial escalation; of those, at least ninety were sustained not by the impact of projectiles, but by the frantic rush to reach safety or the subsequent toll of acute anxiety. These figures reveal a stark, uncomfortable truth: the official government response to the conflict is currently exacting a physical toll comparable to the weapons of our adversaries.
6 comments:
Heard from another blogger: I think more people have been injured and even died from panic and running for shelter. As we both know, one young mommy fell with her baby, injuring his head. Another man accidentally cut off his fingers when closing the shelter door. Recently, a secular Russian 68-year-old woman collapsed while running to a shelter and died. She'd likely still be alive if she'd stayed put.
And even with a shelter in your home: many people have died in these rooms, whether a mamad or a shelter. None can withstand a direct hit.
Arutz Sheva Friday am : [posting at 1pm] On Friday morning, the Health Ministry reported that as of 7:00 a.m., a total of 1,619 people have been evacuated to hospitals since the start of Operation Roaring Lion. Of those, 87 are currently hospitalized or in emergency rooms, including: four 4 in serious condition, half of them not directly from missile impacts; 31 in moderate condition; 50 in light condition, and two undergoing medical evaluation.
Between 7:00 a.m. on Thursday until 7:00 a.m. on Friday, 140 casualties arrived at hospitals, among them one person in serious condition, 19 in moderate condition, 114 in light condition, four suffering from anxiety, and two undergoing medical evaluation.
Just in: Investigation concludes: Most of those killed in Beit Shemesh were outside shelter. DOES THAT MEAN most of the 9, some of the nine? OK THAT MEANS THEY WERE HEADED TOWARD THE SHELTER. SOME SAY THE "INTERCEPTORS" malfunctioned (not verified)? Also, trouble with the Siren?? (also not verified)
All the anecdotes, and statistics concerning injuries caused by rushing to shelter are less than half the story.
What's missing (covered up?) from these narratives, is a key statistic: How many people were save by shelters? The author of the article failed to mention how many homes that were severely damaged by the blast. (Some 8 homes destroyed, and many more severely damaged.) What happened to those residents? How many people who were in shelters survived?
Also missing is whether those injured on the way to shelter were following פיקוד העורף instructions. Upon receiving the (not so) early warning were they close enough to shelter in the case of a siren? Did they run instead of walking quickly to shelter? (To his credit, the author recommends "walking at a measured, intentional pace," but fails to mention that פיקוד העורף says the same thing: "When an alert is received, do not run to the protected space, as it can cause injuries." So he is lying when he attributes such failures to follow instructions as part of "the official government response to the conflict".) Were shelters ready for use, or were they cluttered with stuff that would prevent full capacity?
The failures of the interceptors or sirens are irrelevant to the such questions. It's no חידוש, and the gov't has been open that our defense systems do not provide hermetic protection.
Citing פרקי אבות and not the הלכות of שמירת הנפש is Reform Judaism. You can't pick and choose what הלכות you want to keep.
Conclusion: The author has not provided the full story. He is cherry picking:
1) statistics on injuries/deaths and saved lives
2) Official instructions from פיקוד העורף
3) Torah sources
4) Facts concerning the Bet Shemesh tragedy
Assuming you went to the authors online full article?
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